Fed Decision Radar

Next FOMC Decision

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Typical Reactions

How markets usually respond once the decision and tone are known. The reaction is driven by the surprise versus expectations, not the raw number — and it is never guaranteed.

Hawkish surprise
Higher rates / fewer cuts than expected, or a tougher tone.
Typically risk-off: stocks down, dollar up, gold pressured, yields up.
As expected
Decision matches what markets already priced in.
Usually muted on the number — the move comes from the tone and the projections.
Dovish surprise
Lower rates / more cuts than expected, or a softer tone.
Typically risk-on: stocks up, dollar down, gold supported, yields down.

Going Into the Decision

The current Market Meter reading for reference — this is the market state heading into the meeting. The meter is computed independently; the Fed schedule does not influence it.

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